Same as Ever: A Guide to What Never Changes

The wise in all ages have always said the same thing, and the fools, who at all times form the immense majority, have in their way, too, acted alike, and done just the opposite. (Location: 55-57 Date Added: Monday, 09 September 2024 02:27:14 AM)

History never repeats itself; man always does. Lịch sử không bao giờ lặp lại; con người luôn làm điều đó. —Voltaire (Location: 60-63 Date Added: Monday, 09 September 2024 02:27:36 AM)

I’ve learned an important trick: to develop foresight, you need to practice hindsight. Tôi đã học được một mẹo quan trọng: để phát triển tầm nhìn, bạn cần luyện tập quan sát lại. —Jane McGonigal (Location: 64-67 Date Added: Monday, 09 September 2024 02:27:51 AM)

This is a book of short stories about what never changes in a changing world. (Location: 220-221 Date Added: Sunday, 06 July 2025 01:03:13 PM)

người ta rơi vào lòng tham và sợ hãi giống như họ đang làm trong thế giới hiện tại của chúng ta. (Location: 230-231 Date Added: Sunday, 06 July 2025 01:03:59 PM)

những người bị thuyết phục bởi rủi ro, ghen tỵ và mối quan hệ bộ tộc một cách quen thuộc với bạn. (Location: 232-233 Date Added: Sunday, 06 July 2025 01:04:12 PM)

sự tự tin quá mức và thiển cận nhắc nhở bạn về hành vi của mọi người ngày nay. (Location: 234-235 Date Added: Sunday, 06 July 2025 01:04:28 PM)

nhiều người đang tìm kiếm bí quyết để có cuộc sống hạnh phúc và cố gắng tìm kiếm sự chắc chắn trong khi không có gì là chắc chắn theo cách hoàn toàn dễ đồng cảm được. (Location: 236-238 Date Added: Sunday, 06 July 2025 01:04:43 PM)

hành vi con người (Location: 247-247 Date Added: Sunday, 06 July 2025 01:05:25 PM)

That’s what this book is about: In a thousand parallel universes, what would be true in every single one? (Location: 291-292 Date Added: Sunday, 06 July 2025 01:07:18 PM)

Collaborative Fund, nơi tôi viết về sự giao thoa giữa tiền bạc, lịch sử và tâm lý. (Location: 300-301 Date Added: Sunday, 06 July 2025 01:07:47 PM)

thế giới ngày nay phụ thuộc vào vài thứ nhỏ bé mà bạn chẳng bao giờ nghĩ đến. (Location: 494-495 Date Added: Sunday, 06 July 2025 01:17:26 PM)

Every big story could have turned out differently if a few little puffs of nothingness went the other direction. (Location: 548-549 Date Added: Sunday, 06 July 2025 01:20:27 PM)

So much of the world hangs by a thread. (Location: 550-550 Date Added: Sunday, 06 July 2025 01:20:35 PM)

Rất nhiều thứ trên thế giới đều phụ thuộc vào một sợi chỉ. An irony of studying history is that we often know exactly how a story ends, but we have no idea where it began. Sự mỉa mai trong việc nghiên cứu lịch sử là chúng ta thường biết rõ cuối cùng câu chuyện kết thúc nhưng không biết chỗ nào là điểm bắt đầu. Here’s an example: What caused the 2008 financial crisis? Đây là một ví dụ: Nguyên nhân gây ra khủng hoảng tài chính năm 2008 là gì? Well, you have to understand the mortgage market. Bạn phải hiểu thị trường thế chấp. What shaped the mortgage market? Well, you have to understand the thirty-year decline in interest rates that preceded it. Điều gì đã tạo nên thị trường thế chấp? Vâng, bạn phải hiểu rõ về sự giảm liên tục trong 30 năm trước đó của lãi suất. What caused falling interest rates? Well, you have to understand the inflation of the 1970s. Những gì gây ra sự giảm lãi suất? Đó là do bạn phải hiểu về lạm phát trong những năm 1970. What caused that inflation? Well, you have to understand the monetary system of the 1970s and the hangover effects from the Vietnam War. Điều gây ra sự lạm phát đó là gì? Đúng rồi, bạn phải hiểu hệ thống tiền tệ của những năm 1970 và những tác động sau cơn say từ chiến tranh Việt Nam. What caused the Vietnam War? Well, you have to understand the West’s fear of communism after World War II . . . and so on forever. (Location: 550-564 Date Added: Sunday, 06 July 2025 01:21:44 PM)

Một điểm nổi bật của cuốn sách này là dựa trên cách con người hành xử thay vì dựa vào các sự kiện cụ thể. Dự đoán thế giới sẽ trông như thế nào sau năm mươi năm là không thể. Nhưng dự đoán rằng con người vẫn sẽ phản ứng với sự tham lam, nỗi sợ hãi, cơ hội, lợi dụng, rủi ro, không chắc chắn, sự kết nối bộ tộc và thuyết phục xã hội một cách giống nhau là một mức cược mà tôi sẽ chấp nhận. (Location: 584-588 Date Added: Sunday, 06 July 2025 01:23:06 PM)

Forecasting events is hard because it’s easy to skip the question “And then what?” (Location: 588-589 Date Added: Sunday, 06 July 2025 01:23:31 PM)

Risk Is What You Don’t See (Location: 616-617 Date Added: Sunday, 06 July 2025 01:24:46 PM)

The biggest risk is always what no one sees coming, because if no one sees it coming, no one’s prepared for it; and if no one’s prepared for it, its damage will be amplified when it arrives. (Location: 623-625 Date Added: Sunday, 06 July 2025 01:25:18 PM)

that’s the point: The biggest news, the biggest risks, the most consequential events are always what you don’t see coming. (Location: 717-718 Date Added: Sunday, 06 July 2025 01:29:47 PM)

History knows three things: 1) what’s been photographed, 2) what someone wrote down or recorded, and 3) the words spoken by people whom historians and journalists wanted to interview and who agreed to be interviewed. Lịch sử biết ba điều: 1) những gì đã được chụp ảnh, 2) những gì một ai đó đã viết hoặc ghi lại, và 3) những lời nói của những người mà nhà sử học và nhà báo muốn phỏng vấn và họ đồng ý được phỏng vấn. What percentage of everything important that’s ever happened falls into one of those three categories? No one knows. But it’s tiny. And all three suffer from misinterpretation, incompleteness, embellishment, lying, and selective memory. (Location: 769-774 Date Added: Sunday, 06 July 2025 01:34:37 PM)

Nassim Taleb nói rằng: "Đầu tư vào sự chuẩn bị, không phải vào việc dự đoán." Đó là ý chính. (Location: 820-821 Date Added: Sunday, 06 July 2025 01:35:47 PM)

Những điều bạn không thể thấy đến luôn luôn là những điều bất ngờ. (Location: 875-876 Date Added: Sunday, 06 July 2025 01:38:17 PM)

The first rule of happiness is low expectations. (Location: 881-882 Date Added: Sunday, 06 July 2025 01:38:28 PM)

Một cốt truyện phổ biến của lịch sử diễn ra như sau: Mọi thứ trở nên tốt đẹp hơn, giàu có tăng lên, công nghệ mang đến hiệu suất mới, và y học cứu sống. Chất lượng cuộc sống tăng lên. Nhưng kỳ vọng của con người cũng tăng lên tương đương, nếu không hơn, bởi vì những cải tiến này cũng có lợi cho những người khác xung quanh bạn, hoàn cảnh của họ mà bạn liên kết. Hạnh phúc ít thay đổi mặc dù thế giới cải thiện. (Location: 890-894 Date Added: Sunday, 06 July 2025 08:16:05 PM)

Đã như vậy từ lâu rồi. Montesquieu đã viết cách đây 275 năm: "Nếu bạn chỉ muốn được hạnh phúc, điều này có thể thực hiện dễ dàng; nhưng chúng ta muốn hạnh phúc hơn người khác, và điều này luôn khó khăn, vì chúng ta tin rằng người khác hạnh phúc hơn họ thực sự là." (Location: 896-899 Date Added: Sunday, 06 July 2025 08:16:31 PM)

Nhà đầu tư Charlie Munger từng nhận xét rằng thế giới không được thúc đẩy bởi lòng tham; nó được thúc đẩy bởi sự ghen tị. (Location: 907-908 Date Added: Sunday, 06 July 2025 10:53:34 PM)

Tiền mua hạnh phúc như cách ma túy mang lại niềm vui: tuyệt vời nếu sử dụng đúng cách, nguy hiểm nếu được sử dụng để che giấu một điểm yếu, và thảm họa khi không bao giờ đủ. (Location: 1012-1014 Date Added: Sunday, 06 July 2025 10:58:08 PM)

Việc bị thúc đẩy bởi những gì người khác có mà bạn không có là một đặc tính không thể tránh khỏi ở hầu hết mọi người. (Location: 1093-1094 Date Added: Sunday, 06 July 2025 11:03:07 PM)

Khi bạn nghĩ về điều đó, bạn nhận ra sức mạnh của kỳ vọng. Chúng có thể khiến cho một ngôi sao cảm thấy đau đớn và một gia đình nghèo cảm thấy hạnh phúc. Điều đó thật là đáng kinh ngạc. Mọi người, ở bất cứ nơi nào, đang theo đuổi sự chênh lệch giữa kỳ vọng và hiện thực. (Location: 1136-1138 Date Added: Sunday, 06 July 2025 11:05:44 PM)

The first rule of a happy life is low expectations. If you have unrealistic expectations you’re going to be miserable your whole life. You want to have reasonable expectations and take life’s results, good and bad, as they happen with a certain amount of stoicism. (Location: 1169-1172 Date Added: Sunday, 06 July 2025 11:07:48 PM)

theory about marriage: It only works when both people want to help their spouse while expecting nothing in return. If you both do that, you’re both pleasantly surprised. (Location: 1175-1176 Date Added: Sunday, 06 July 2025 11:09:40 PM)

hiểu cách chơi trò chơi kỳ vọng. (Location: 1194-1195 Date Added: Tuesday, 08 July 2025 12:07:29 AM)

Cách khác là hiểu cách chơi trò chơi kỳ vọng. Đó là một trò chơi tinh thần, thường rất quái đản và đau khổ, nhưng đó là một trò chơi mà ai cũng bị buộc phải tham gia, vì vậy bạn nên nhận thức về các quy tắc và chiến lược. Nó diễn ra như sau: Bạn nghĩ rằng bạn muốn tiến bộ, cả cho chính mình và cho thế giới. Nhưng hầu hết thời gian thực ra bạn không thực sự muốn điều đó. Bạn muốn cảm thấy sự chênh lệch giữa những gì bạn mong đợi và những gì thực sự xảy ra. Và phần kỳ vọng trong phương trình đó không chỉ quan trọng, mà nó thường nằm trong quyền kiểm soát của bạn hơn việc quản lý hoàn cảnh của mình. (Location: 1194-1200 Date Added: Tuesday, 08 July 2025 12:08:00 AM)

Một điều đã tích hợp vào bản chất của con người là những người nghĩ về thế giới theo cách độc đáo mà bạn thích cũng hầu như chắc chắn nghĩ về thế giới theo cách độc đáo mà bạn sẽ không thích. (Location: 1232-1234 Date Added: Tuesday, 08 July 2025 12:10:23 AM)

những người xuất sắc tại một điều gì đó thường gặp phải yếu tố ở một điều khác. Có vẻ như não bộ chỉ có khả năng chứa một lượng kiến thức và cảm xúc nhất định, và một kỹ năng phi thường sẽ đánh cắp băng thông từ những phần khác của tính cách của một người. (Location: 1330-1333 Date Added: Tuesday, 08 July 2025 12:15:41 AM)

Một ngày nọ, tôi nhận ra rằng với tất cả những người mà tôi ganh tị, tôi không thể chỉ chọn những khía cạnh nhỏ trong cuộc sống của họ. Tôi không thể nói rằng tôi muốn có thân hình của anh ta, muốn có tiền của cô ta, muốn có tính cách của anh ta. Bạn phải là chính người đó. Bạn có thực sự muốn trở thành người đó với tất cả phản ứng của họ, mong muốn của họ, gia đình của họ, mức độ hạnh phúc của họ, quan điểm về cuộc sống của họ, và hình ảnh bản thân của họ không? Nếu bạn không sẵn lòng hoán đổi toàn bộ, cả ngày lẫn đêm, 100%, với người đó, thì việc ganh tị không có ý nghĩa. (Location: 1404-1410 Date Added: Tuesday, 08 July 2025 12:19:42 AM)

cuộc sống là về việc quản lý xác suất. (Location: 1448-1448 Date Added: Monday, 14 July 2025 12:16:17 PM)

Một đặc điểm chung của hành vi con người là mong muốn mãnh liệt để đạt được sự chắc chắn mặc dù sống trong một thế giới không chắc chắn và có tính xác suất. (Location: 1451-1453 Date Added: Monday, 14 July 2025 11:45:16 PM)

ít người thực sự sử dụng xác suất trong thế giới thực, đặc biệt là khi đánh giá thành công của người khác. (Location: 1473-1474 Date Added: Monday, 14 July 2025 11:47:39 PM)

Most of what people care about is, “Were you right or wrong?” Hầu hết những gì mọi người quan tâm là, "Bạn có đúng hay sai?" “Was that a yes or a no?” (Location: 1474-1476 Date Added: Monday, 14 July 2025 11:48:01 PM)

The core here is that people think they want an accurate view of the future, but what they really crave is certainty. (Location: 1485-1486 Date Added: Monday, 14 July 2025 11:49:38 PM)

Đó là điều bình thường khi muốn giải thoát bản thân khỏi thực tế đau đớn của việc không biết điều gì sẽ xảy ra tiếp theo. (Location: 1490-1491 Date Added: Monday, 14 July 2025 11:50:19 PM)

"Với một mẫu mẫu đủ lớn, bất kỳ điều gì kỳ quặc cũng có thể xảy ra," Mosteller nói. (Location: 1531-1532 Date Added: Monday, 14 July 2025 11:52:37 PM)

Có khoảng tám tỷ người trên hành tinh này. Vì vậy nếu một sự kiện xảy ra với xác suất một trên một triệu mỗi ngày, nó nên xảy ra với tám ngàn người mỗi ngày, hoặc 2,9 triệu lần mỗi năm, và có lẽ khoảng một tỷ lần trong suốt cuộc đời của bạn. (Location: 1538-1540 Date Added: Monday, 14 July 2025 11:53:32 PM)

The decline of local news has all kinds of implications. One that doesn’t get much attention is that the wider the news becomes the more likely it is to be pessimistic. (Location: 1618-1620 Date Added: Monday, 14 July 2025 11:58:10 PM)

Dễ thấy rằng sự tiến hóa sẽ khiến cho động vật, qua hàng triệu năm, dần dần hướng tới việc loại bỏ nghi ngờ nhanh chóng. Cuối cùng, điều duy nhất chắc chắn là không hiệu quả cho một con mồi đang bị đe dọa bởi một con thú săn là mất nhiều thời gian để quyết định phải làm gì. (Location: 1678-1681 Date Added: Tuesday, 15 July 2025 12:00:45 AM)

Knowing the high odds of something happening loses its meaning when that thing happening hurts. Probability goes out the window. (Location: 1736-1737 Date Added: Tuesday, 15 July 2025 12:05:43 AM)

khó khăn của chúng ta trong xử lý xác suất và số lượng lớn khiến chúng ta quá nhạy cảm với những rủi ro bình thường, không thể tránh khỏi. Same as ever. (Location: 1744-1746 Date Added: Tuesday, 15 July 2025 12:06:17 AM)

Stories are always more powerful than statistics. (Location: 1752-1753 Date Added: Tuesday, 15 July 2025 12:06:35 AM)

vụ chìm của tàu phà Trung Quốc SS Kiangya vào năm 1948, khiến gần bốn nghìn người thiệt mạng. (Location: 1915-1916 Date Added: Tuesday, 15 July 2025 12:52:28 AM)

vụ chìm tàu phà MV Dona Paz năm 1987, làm chết 4.345 người. (Location: 1917-1918 Date Added: Tuesday, 15 July 2025 12:52:37 AM)

Trong một thế giới hoàn hảo, sự quan trọng của thông tin không phụ thuộc vào sự hùng biện của tác giả. Nhưng chúng ta sống trong một thế giới mà mọi người buồn chán, thiếu kiên nhẫn, cảm động và cần phải đơn giản hóa những điều phức tạp thành những cảnh dễ hiểu. (Location: 1932-1934 Date Added: Tuesday, 15 July 2025 12:53:32 AM)

Mark Twain đã nói, "Hài hước là cách để cho thấy bạn thông minh mà không cần khoe khoang." (Location: 1966-1967 Date Added: Tuesday, 15 July 2025 12:16:43 PM)

"Sách hay như rượu," Twain nói, "nhưng sách của tôi giống như nước. Nhưng mọi người đều uống nước." (Location: 2014-2015 Date Added: Tuesday, 15 July 2025 12:19:30 PM)

Người sáng lập Visa - Dee Hock từng nói rằng: "Cách nhìn mới về mọi vấn đề tạo ra sự đổi mới lớn hơn so với cách làm mới." (Location: 2027-2028 Date Added: Tuesday, 15 July 2025 12:20:30 PM)

Một số điều quan trọng không thể đo lường. Chúng có thể là điều không thể, hoặc quá khó nhận biết để định lượng. Nhưng chúng có thể tạo ra sự khác biệt lớn lao trên thế giới, thường là do việc không đo lường được gây ra cho người ta sự coi thường về tính liên quan của chúng hoặc thậm chí bác bỏ sự tồn tại của chúng. (Location: 2096-2099 Date Added: Wednesday, 16 July 2025 12:09:02 AM)

Một số lực lượng quan trọng nhất trên thế giới, đặc biệt là những liên quan đến tính cách và tâm lý con người, gần như không thể đo lường và không thể dự đoán. (Location: 2104-2106 Date Added: Wednesday, 16 July 2025 12:11:34 AM)

There was a behavioral and psychological side that was much harder to measure. (Location: 2209-2210 Date Added: Wednesday, 16 July 2025 12:30:27 AM)

Cơ thể chúng ta không phải là máy móc và chúng ta không nên mong đợi chúng hoạt động như vậy. Chúng có cảm xúc, tình cảm và nỗi sợ hãi, tất cả những điều này điều chỉnh những gì chúng ta có thể làm được. (Location: 2222-2224 Date Added: Wednesday, 16 July 2025 12:31:23 AM)

Tin tưởng là điều duy nhất quan trọng. Nhưng đó lại là điều khó định lượng, khó mô hình hóa, khó dự đoán, và không thể tính toán trong một mô hình định giá truyền thống. (Location: 2258-2260 Date Added: Wednesday, 16 July 2025 12:34:01 AM)

The most important variable was the stories people told themselves. And that was the only thing you couldn’t measure and couldn’t predict with foresight. That’s why the results don’t compute. (Location: 2264-2266 Date Added: Wednesday, 16 July 2025 12:34:47 AM)

Nếu bạn chỉ dựa vào dữ liệu và logic mà không kết hợp cảm xúc trong việc hiểu về nền kinh tế, bạn sẽ bị nhầm lẫn suốt một trăm năm qua. (Location: 2277-2279 Date Added: Wednesday, 16 July 2025 12:35:31 AM)

"Khái niệm về giá trị kinh tế rất đơn giản: bất cứ thứ gì mà ai đó muốn đều có giá trị, không phân biệt lý do (nếu có)." (Location: 2281-2282 Date Added: Wednesday, 16 July 2025 12:35:56 AM)

hiểu rằng thế giới thực sự là một chuỗi không bao giờ kết thúc của sự ngớ ngẩn, hỗn độn, mối quan hệ rối ren và những người không hoàn hảo. (Location: 2301-2302 Date Added: Wednesday, 16 July 2025 12:40:51 AM)

"Nhu cầu về sự chắc chắn chính là căn bệnh lớn nhất mà tâm trí phải đối mặt." Đó là lý do khiến chúng ta bỏ qua việc thế giới không phải là một bảng tính lớn mà kết quả có thể được tính toán. (Location: 2331-2333 Date Added: Wednesday, 16 July 2025 12:42:49 AM)

Cuối cùng là sức mạnh của câu chuyện so với số liệu thống kê. "Giá nhà so với thu nhập trung bình hiện nay vượt qua mức trung bình lịch sử và thường có xu hướng điều chỉnh" là một số liệu thống kê. "Jim vừa kiếm được 500.000 đô la nhờ mua bán nhà và giờ có thể nghỉ hưu sớm và vợ anh ta nghĩ rằng anh ta thật tuyệt vời" là một câu chuyện. Và câu chuyện này thật sức thuyết phục hơn (Location: 2352-2356 Date Added: Wednesday, 16 July 2025 12:45:33 AM)

Minsky’s big idea was that stability is destabilizing. Ý tưởng lớn của Minsky là sự ổn định dẫn đến sự không ổn. (Location: 2415-2417 Date Added: Wednesday, 16 July 2025 12:47:46 AM)

“Everything feels unprecedented when you haven’t engaged with history,” writer Kelly Hayes once wrote. (Location: 2464-2465 Date Added: Wednesday, 16 July 2025 12:49:59 AM)

Lý thuyết của Carl Jung gọi là enantiodromia. Đó là ý tưởng rằng sự dư thừa của một thứ gì đó dẫn đến sự ngược lại của nó. (Location: 2548-2549 Date Added: Wednesday, 16 July 2025 12:54:07 AM)

Stability is destabilizing. Sự ổn định làm mất ổn định. Or, put another way: Calm plants the seeds of crazy. Always has, always will. (Page: 172 Location: 2462-2464 Date Added: Thursday, 17 July 2025 12:29:40 AM)

What calm planting the seeds of crazy does is important: It makes us fundamentally underestimate the odds of things going wrong, and the consequences of something going wrong. Things can become the most dangerous when people perceive them to be the safest. (Page: 180 Location: 2575-2577 Date Added: Thursday, 17 July 2025 12:35:07 AM)

Every few years there seems to be a declaration that markets don’t work anymore—that they’re all speculation or detached from fundamentals. But it’s always been that way. People haven’t lost their minds; they’re just searching for the boundaries of what other investors are willing to believe. (Page: 184 Location: 2633-2635 Date Added: Thursday, 17 July 2025 12:38:41 AM)

The second is realizing the power of enough. (Page: 184 Location: 2638-2638 Date Added: Thursday, 17 July 2025 12:39:01 AM)

Maybe there’s more potential out there, but it’s fine to say, “You know what, I’m pretty happy with this level of risk and I’m fine just watching this game play out.” Not (Page: 185 Location: 2646-2647 Date Added: Thursday, 17 July 2025 12:39:38 AM)

Maybe there’s more potential out there, but it’s fine to say, “You know what, I’m pretty happy with this level of risk and I’m fine just watching this game play out.” Not everyone can do it—and markets on average can never do it—but more of us should try. (Page: 185 Location: 2646-2648 Date Added: Thursday, 17 July 2025 12:39:53 AM)

Most things have a natural size and speed and backfire quickly when you push them beyond that. (Page: 187 Location: 2671-2672 Date Added: Thursday, 17 July 2025 12:41:21 AM)

Bạn không thể tăng kích thước của một con người lên ba lần và mong đợi hiệu suất tăng ba lần - cơ học không hoạt động như vậy. (Page: 189 Location: 2701-2702 Date Added: Thursday, 17 July 2025 12:42:52 AM)

A most convenient size. (Page: 190 Location: 2723-2723 Date Added: Thursday, 17 July 2025 12:43:52 AM)

There are endless similar examples in nature, most highlighting that a good idea sped up too fast quickly becomes a terrible idea. (Page: 196 Location: 2797-2798 Date Added: Thursday, 17 July 2025 12:47:18 AM)

Fast growth leads to soft, airy wood that never had time to densify. And soft, airy wood is a breeding ground for fungus and disease. “A tree that grows quickly rots quickly and therefore never has a chance to grow old,” forester Peter Wohlleben wrote. Haste makes waste. (Page: 197 Location: 2807-2809 Date Added: Thursday, 17 July 2025 12:48:04 AM)

Growth is good, if only because runts eventually get eaten. But forced growth, accelerated growth, artificial growth—that tends to backfire. (Page: 199 Location: 2837-2839 Date Added: Thursday, 17 July 2025 12:49:18 AM)

An important thing about this topic is that most great things in life—from love to careers to investing—gain their value from two things: patience and scarcity. Patience to let something grow, and scarcity to admire what it grows into. (Page: 199 Location: 2845-2847 Date Added: Thursday, 17 July 2025 12:50:11 AM)

Một sự thật không đổi mà bạn có thể nhìn thấy qua lịch sử là những thay đổi lớn nhất và những đổi mới quan trọng nhất không xảy ra khi mọi người đều hạnh phúc và mọi việc đều thuận lợi. (Page: 201 Location: 2862-2864 Date Added: Thursday, 17 July 2025 08:16:30 AM)

Một sự thật không đổi mà bạn có thể nhìn thấy qua lịch sử là những thay đổi lớn nhất và những đổi mới quan trọng nhất không xảy ra khi mọi người đều hạnh phúc và mọi việc đều thuận lợi. Thay vào đó, chúng thường xảy ra trong và sau một sự kiện kinh khủng. Khi mọi người hơi hoảng loạn, sốc, lo lắng, và khi hậu quả của việc không hành động nhanh chóng quá đau đớn để chịu đựng. (Page: 201 Location: 2862-2866 Date Added: Thursday, 17 July 2025 08:16:48 AM)

But more importantly, they’re home to Really Big Problems That Need to Be Solved Right Now. Nhưng điều quan trọng hơn cả, chúng là nơi của những vấn đề lớn cần được giải quyết ngay lập tức. Innovation is driven by incentives, which come in many forms. Sáng tạo được thúc đẩy bởi động lực, đến từ nhiều hình thức khác (Page: 210 Location: 2994-2997 Date Added: Thursday, 17 July 2025 12:03:23 PM)

Militaries are engines of innovation because they occasionally deal with problems so important—so urgent, so vital—that money and manpower are removed as obstacles, and those involved collaborate in ways that are hard to emulate during calm times. (Page: 211 Location: 3015-3017 Date Added: Thursday, 17 July 2025 12:04:19 PM)

Những người giống nhau với cùng trí tuệ có khả năng khác biệt một cách rất lớn dưới các hoàn cảnh khác nhau. (Page: 212 Location: 3025-3026 Date Added: Thursday, 17 July 2025 12:04:42 PM)

"Năng lượng dư thừa phát ra từ phản ứng quá mức với những thất bại là điều thúc đẩy đổi mới!" Nassim Taleb đã viết. (Page: 212 Location: 3032-3034 Date Added: Thursday, 17 July 2025 12:05:11 PM)

Nếu tôi chỉ không cần phải làm việc mỗi ngày, nếu tôi chỉ có thể đi câu cá hoặc săn bắn hoặc chơi golf hoặc đi du lịch, đó sẽ là cuộc sống tuyệt vời nhất trên thế giới - họ không biết đến cuộc sống. Bởi vì điều làm cho cuộc sống trở nên ý nghĩa là mục tiêu. Một mục tiêu. Cuộc chiến, cuộc đấu - ngay cả khi bạn không thắng cuộc. (Page: 225 Location: 3213-3216 Date Added: Thursday, 17 July 2025 11:29:40 PM)

Sợ hãi, đau khổ, cuộc đấu tranh là những nguồn động lực mà cảm xúc tích cực không bao giờ có thể sánh được. (Page: 225 Location: 3224-3225 Date Added: Thursday, 17 July 2025 11:30:08 PM)

Be careful what you wish for. (Page: 225 Location: 3226-3227 Date Added: Thursday, 17 July 2025 11:30:24 PM)

Đó là một phần tự nhiên của cách thế giới hoạt động, được thúc đẩy bởi việc tin tức tốt đẹp đến từ sự tích tụ, mà luôn mất thời gian, nhưng tin tức xấu đến từ sự mất niềm tin hoặc một lỗi thảm họa có thể xảy ra trong một chớp mắt. (Page: 228 Location: 3248-3251 Date Added: Thursday, 17 July 2025 11:31:34 PM)

tưởng "phức tạp để tạo ra, đơn giản để phá hủy" xuất hiện ở khắp mọi nơi. Việc xây dựng đòi hỏi kỹ sư có kỹ năng; việc phá hủy chỉ cần một cái búa. Ngay cả khi một cái gì đó không phá hủy dễ dàng, thì thứ có thể phá hủy nó thường đơn giản hơn thứ tạo ra nó. (Page: 235 Location: 3357-3360 Date Added: Thursday, 17 July 2025 11:35:53 PM)

Tsar Bomba (vua của bom), nó mạnh gấp mười lần so với tất cả bom thông thường được ném xuống trong Thế chiến II kết hợp. Khi được thử nghiệm tại Nga, tia lửa của nó đã được nhìn thấy cách xa đến 600 dặm. Đám mây nấm của nó đã đi lên 42 dặm vào bầu trời. (Page: 239 Location: 3412-3415 Date Added: Thursday, 17 July 2025 11:38:12 PM)

Những thay đổi nhỏ tích lũy trong một thời gian dài tạo ra những thay đổi phi thường. Same as ever. (Page: 250 Location: 3574-3575 Date Added: Thursday, 17 July 2025 11:45:13 PM)

Kế hoạch tài chính tốt nhất là tiết kiệm như một người bi quan và đầu tư như một người lạc quan. (Page: 252 Location: 3597-3598 Date Added: Thursday, 17 July 2025 11:46:57 PM)

Đó là cân bằng - lập kế hoạch như một người bi quan và mơ ước như một người lạc quan. That mix is counterintuitive, but it’s so powerful when done right. Sự kết hợp đó không hợp lý nhưng rất mạnh mẽ khi thực hiện đúng cách. Remaining optimistic (Page: 254 Location: 3625-3628 Date Added: Thursday, 17 July 2025 11:48:04 PM)

Giữ lại sự lạc quan trong khi chấp nhận thực tế của nỗi tuyệt vọng là điều đáng ngưỡng mộ để quan sát. (Page: 254 Location: 3628-3629 Date Added: Thursday, 17 July 2025 11:48:29 PM)

bạn chỉ có thể trở thành một người lạc quan trong tương lai nếu bạn bi quan đủ để sống sót trong quãng ngắn hạn. (Page: 260 Location: 3708-3709 Date Added: Friday, 18 July 2025 12:14:13 PM)

the rational optimists: those who acknowledge that history is a constant chain of problems and disappointments and setbacks, but who remain optimistic because they know setbacks don’t prevent eventual progress. They sound like hypocrites and flip-floppers, but often they’re just looking further ahead than other people. (Page: 261 Location: 3726-3729 Date Added: Friday, 18 July 2025 12:15:48 PM)

Bài học trong mọi lĩnh vực - từ tài chính đến sự nghiệp và mối quan hệ - là có khả năng vượt qua những khó khăn ngắn hạn để bạn có thể tồn tại đủ lâu để tận hưởng sự phát triển dài hạn. (Page: 261 Location: 3734-3736 Date Added: Friday, 18 July 2025 12:16:04 PM)

Tiết kiệm như một người bi quan và đầu tư như một người lạc quan. (Page: 261 Location: 3737-3737 Date Added: Friday, 18 July 2025 12:16:13 PM)

Lập kế hoạch như một người bi quan và mơ mộng như một người lạc quan. (Page: 262 Location: 3738-3739 Date Added: Friday, 18 July 2025 12:16:22 PM)

An important lesson from history is that the long run is usually pretty good and the short run is usually pretty bad. It takes effort to reconcile those two and learn how to manage them with what seem like conflicting skills. (Page: 263 Location: 3756-3757 Date Added: Friday, 18 July 2025 12:18:10 PM)

A successful person purposely leaving gaps of free time on their schedule to do nothing in particular can feel inefficient. And it is, so not many people do it. (Page: 267 Location: 3814-3815 Date Added: Saturday, 19 July 2025 08:48:37 PM)

There is a huge advantage to being a little imperfect. (Page: 264 Location: 3767-3768 Date Added: Saturday, 19 July 2025 10:09:23 PM)

Không có loài nào hoàn hảo, có thể thích nghi với mọi thứ vào mọi thời điểm. Điều tốt nhất mà bất kỳ loài nào có thể làm là giỏi ở một số điều cho đến khi những điều mà nó không giỏi bỗng trở nên quan trọng hơn. Và sau đó, nó sẽ chết đi. (Page: 265 Location: 3779-3781 Date Added: Saturday, 19 July 2025 10:10:07 PM)

mọi người muốn tạo dáng bận rộn mọi lúc vì họ nghĩ rằng điều đó là cao quý. (Page: 272 Location: 3891-3892 Date Added: Sunday, 20 July 2025 12:15:30 AM)

Trong việc đầu tư cũng vậy. Tiền mặt là một trở ngại không hiệu quả trong thị trường tăng giá và quý giá như oxy trong thị trường giảm giá. Đòn bẩy là cách hiệu quả nhất để tối đa hóa bảng cân đối và cách dễ dàng nhất để mất tất cả. Tập trung là cách tốt nhất để tối đa hóa lợi nhuận, nhưng đa dạng hóa là cách tốt nhất để tăng cơ hội sở hữu một công ty có khả năng mang lại lợi nhuận. Và cứ tiếp tục như vậy. (Page: 274 Location: 3919-3923 Date Added: Sunday, 20 July 2025 12:17:02 AM)

Đây là một trong những kỹ năng sống hữu ích nhất - chịu đựng nỗi đau khi cần thiết thay vì cho rằng có một cách gian lận hoặc một lối tắt để tránh nó. (Page: 280 Location: 4013-4015 Date Added: Sunday, 20 July 2025 12:23:03 AM)

Same goes for diets, finances, marketing . . . everyone wants a shortcut. It’s always been this way, but I suspect it’s getting worse as technology inflates our benchmark for how fast results (Page: 281 Location: 4027-4028 Date Added: Sunday, 20 July 2025 12:24:20 AM)

Same goes for diets, finances, marketing . . . everyone wants a shortcut. It’s always been this way, but I suspect it’s getting worse as technology inflates our benchmark for how fast results should happen. (Page: 281 Location: 4027-4028 Date Added: Sunday, 20 July 2025 12:24:29 AM)

Charlie Munger once noted: “The safest way to try to get what you want is to try to deserve what you want. It’s such a simple idea. It’s the golden rule. You want to deliver to the world what you would buy if you were on the other end.” (Page: 282 Location: 4034-4036 Date Added: Sunday, 20 July 2025 12:25:04 AM)

Bạn có thể là một quan tòa Tòa án Tối cao và vẫn sẽ có những phần của công việc mà bạn không thích. Bạn cũng có thể là một giáo sư đại học nhưng vẫn phải tham gia cuộc họp của ủy ban. Mọi công việc đều đi kèm với những phần mà bạn không thích. (Page: 285 Location: 4082-4085 Date Added: Sunday, 20 July 2025 12:27:14 AM)

Một quy tắc đơn giản mà rõ ràng nhưng dễ bị lãng quên là không có gì đáng theo đuổi là miễn phí. Làm sao nó có thể khác được? Mọi thứ đều có giá trị và giá trị thường tỷ lệ với phần thưởng tiềm năng. (Page: 285 Location: 4091-4093 Date Added: Sunday, 20 July 2025 12:27:31 AM)

Nhưng hiếm khi có một giá cả cụ thể. Và bạn không trả giá bằng tiền mặt. Hầu hết những thứ đáng theo đuổi đều tính phí của nó dưới hình thức căng thẳng, bất định, làm việc với những người kỳ quặc, quan chức, động lực trái ngược của những người khác, phiền toái, vô nghĩa, làm việc cả ngày và nghi ngờ không ngừng. Đó là chi phí phụ để tiến xa hơn. (Page: 286 Location: 4095-4098 Date Added: Sunday, 20 July 2025 12:28:04 AM)

Điều đáng kinh ngạc ở đây là tiến hóa khuyến khích bạn trở nên lớn hơn, sau đó trừng phạt bạn vì đã to lớn. (Page: 295 Location: 4233-4235 Date Added: Sunday, 20 July 2025 09:53:25 AM)

Lợi thế cạnh tranh không kéo dài lâu. (Page: 295 Location: 4236-4237 Date Added: Sunday, 20 July 2025 09:55:03 AM)

Kích thước liên kết với thành công, thành công liên kết với kiêu ngạo, và kiêu ngạo là sự bắt đầu của sự suy tàn của thành công. (Page: 299 Location: 4301-4303 Date Added: Sunday, 20 July 2025 09:58:26 AM)

“Keep running” just to stay in place is how evolution works. (Page: 306 Location: 4402-4403 Date Added: Sunday, 20 July 2025 10:06:34 AM)

Tiến hóa là tàn nhẫn và không khoan nhượng - nó không dạy bằng cách cho bạn thấy những gì hoạt động mà bằng cách tiêu diệt những gì không hoạt động. (Page: 307 Location: 4410-4412 Date Added: Sunday, 20 July 2025 10:08:33 AM)

Có một lý thuyết trong sinh học tiến hóa được gọi là Định lý Cơ bản của Lựa chọn Tự nhiên của Fisher. Đó là ý tưởng rằng sự đa dạng tương đương với sức mạnh, bởi vì một quần thể càng đa dạng, cơ hội càng nhiều để phát triển các đặc tính mới có thể được lựa chọn. Không ai có thể biết trước đặc tính nào sẽ hữu ích; đó không phải cách mà tiến hóa hoạt động. Nhưng nếu tạo ra nhiều đặc tính, đặc tính hữu ích - dù là gì - sẽ được tìm thấy ở đó một nơi nào đó. (Page: 316 Location: 4552-4556 Date Added: Sunday, 20 July 2025 10:16:53 AM)

Hầu hết mọi người không tiết lộ những gì làm họ đau khổ, những gì họ sợ hãi, những gì làm họ không tự tin, hay liệu họ có thực sự hạnh phúc hay không. Hiếm khi họ sẽ cho bạn một bản tường thuật trung thực về nhược điểm và thất bại của họ. (Page: 321 Location: 4616-4619 Date Added: Sunday, 20 July 2025 10:20:59 AM)

Dễ dàng thuyết phục người khác rằng bạn đặc biệt hơn nếu họ không biết bạn đủ để thấy những cách bạn không đặc biệt. (Page: 321 Location: 4625-4627 Date Added: Sunday, 20 July 2025 10:21:21 AM)

But almost everything looks better from the outside. Nhưng gần như mọi thứ trông đẹp hơn từ bên ngoài. (Page: 323 Location: 4647-4648 Date Added: Sunday, 20 July 2025 10:49:44 AM)

Bạn không bao giờ biết được những khó khăn mà người khác đang giấu. (Page: 326 Location: 4687-4688 Date Added: Sunday, 20 July 2025 10:59:10 AM)

Most things are harder than they look and not as fun as they seem. (Page: 326 Location: 4695-4695 Date Added: Sunday, 20 July 2025 11:00:49 AM)

Everyone’s dealing with problems they don’t advertise, at least until you get to know them well. Keep that in mind and you become more forgiving—of yourself and others. (Page: 327 Location: 4716-4717 Date Added: Sunday, 20 July 2025 11:01:52 AM)

Daniel Kahneman đã từng viết, "Dễ dàng nhận ra sai lầm của người khác hơn là sai lầm của chính mình." (Page: 333 Location: 4776-4776 Date Added: Sunday, 20 July 2025 11:06:03 AM)

Một trong những lý do mạnh mẽ nhất của cơ chế kích thích là khao khát của con người muốn nghe chỉ những điều họ muốn nghe và nhìn chỉ những điều họ muốn nhìn. (Page: 337 Location: 4836-4837 Date Added: Sunday, 20 July 2025 11:08:46 AM)

When good and honest people can be incentivized into crazy behavior, it’s easy to underestimate the odds of the world going off the rails. (Page: 340 Location: 4887-4888 Date Added: Sunday, 20 July 2025 11:10:45 AM)

Không ai có thể hiểu điều đó cho đến khi họ trải qua trải nghiệm nó. (Page: 349 Location: 5001-5002 Date Added: Sunday, 20 July 2025 11:25:34 AM)

Long-term thinking is easier to believe in than to accomplish. (Page: 357 Location: 5109-5109 Date Added: Sunday, 20 July 2025 11:30:28 AM)

A lot of it comes from the gap between what you believe and what you can convince other people (Page: 360 Location: 5155-5156 Date Added: Sunday, 20 July 2025 11:33:56 AM)

Long term is less about time horizon and more about flexibility. (Page: 362 Location: 5186-5187 Date Added: Sunday, 20 July 2025 11:35:06 AM)

Tôi cố gắng hỏi khi đọc: Liệu tôi sẽ quan tâm đến điều này sau một năm không? Mười năm sau không? Tám mươi năm sau không? (Page: 363 Location: 5207-5209 Date Added: Sunday, 20 July 2025 11:36:05 AM)

Có hai loại thông tin: thông tin cố định và thông tin có hạn. Permanent information is: “How do people behave when they encounter a risk they hadn’t fathomed?” Expiring information is: “How much profit did Microsoft earn in the second quarter of 2005?” Thông tin không thay đổi là: "Con người cư xử ra sao khi họ gặp một rủi ro mà họ chưa từng tưởng tượng đến?" Thông tin có hạn là: "Microsoft kiếm được bao nhiêu lợi nhuận trong quý hai năm 2005?" (Page: 364 Location: 5212-5216 Date Added: Sunday, 20 July 2025 11:36:42 AM)

Tiến hóa đã tìm ra phiên bản đơn giản của nó. Nó (nếu bạn có thể tưởng tượng tiến hóa nói) nói, "Hãy loại bỏ hết những thứ vô dụng đi. Chỉ cần cho tôi những thứ cần thiết và làm cho chúng hiệu quả." (Page: 373 Location: 5335-5337 Date Added: Sunday, 20 July 2025 11:42:39 AM)

Khi bạn bắt đầu nghiên cứu một lĩnh vực, có vẻ như bạn phải nhớ một triệu điều. Nhưng thực ra không cần. Điều bạn cần là nhận ra các nguyên lý cơ bản — thông thường từ ba đến mười hai nguyên lý — điều chỉnh lĩnh vực đó. Một triệu điều mà bạn nghĩ bạn phải nhớ chính là các sự kết hợp khác nhau của những nguyên lý cơ bản. (Page: 374 Location: 5343-5347 Date Added: Sunday, 20 July 2025 11:43:11 AM)

Complexity gives a comforting impression of control, while simplicity is hard to distinguish from cluelessness. (Page: 375 Location: 5367-5368 Date Added: Sunday, 20 July 2025 11:47:39 AM)

Simplicity feels like an easy walk. Complexity feels like a mental marathon. (Page: 378 Location: 5407-5408 Date Added: Sunday, 20 July 2025 11:49:53 AM)

Richard Feynman và Stephen Hawking có thể dạy toán bằng ngôn ngữ đơn giản không gây đau đầu, không phải vì họ đã giảm bớt nội dung mà vì họ biết cách đến được từ A đến Z trong ít bước nhất có thể. Một nguyên tắc hiệu quả không tránh khỏi sự phức tạp; nó bọc lấy những điều bạn không hiểu bằng những điều bạn hiểu. (Page: 379 Location: 5414-5417 Date Added: Sunday, 20 July 2025 11:50:34 AM)

Một thành phần quan trọng của hành vi con người là những người đã trải qua những trải nghiệm khác với bạn sẽ có suy nghĩ khác với bạn. Họ sẽ có những mục tiêu, quan điểm, nguyện vọng và giá trị khác nhau. Vì vậy, hầu hết các cuộc tranh luận không phải là những sự không đồng ý thực sự; đó là những người có kinh nghiệm khác nhau nói chồng lên nhau. (Page: 383 Location: 5468-5472 Date Added: Sunday, 20 July 2025 11:56:08 AM)

Chúng ta có thể nhìn thấy và đo lường gần như mọi thứ trên thế giới ngoại trừ tâm trạng, nỗi sợ hãi, hy vọng, sự không bằng lòng, mục tiêu, kích thích, và kỳ vọng của con người. Đó là một phần lý do tại sao lịch sử luôn là một chuỗi sự kiện khó hiểu, và sẽ mãi vẫn như vậy. (Page: 387 Location: 5525-5528 Date Added: Sunday, 20 July 2025 11:58:42 AM)

"Một tâm trí bị mở rộng bởi những trải nghiệm mới sẽ không bao giờ quay trở lại kích thước cũ," ông Oliver Wendell Holmes nói. (Page: 390 Location: 5571-5573 Date Added: Sunday, 20 July 2025 12:02:22 PM)

Nhưng thường thì một câu hỏi tốt hơn là, "Anh/chị đã trải qua những gì mà tôi chưa trải qua mà khiến anh/chị tin vào điều đó? Và nếu tôi trải qua những điều mà anh/chị đã trải qua, liệu tôi sẽ nghĩ về thế giới như anh/chị không?" (Page: 395 Location: 5638-5641 Date Added: Sunday, 20 July 2025 12:04:43 PM)

Và vì các trải nghiệm sẽ luôn khác nhau, sự bất đồng ý kiến sẽ luôn diễn ra. (Page: 396 Location: 5656-5657 Date Added: Sunday, 20 July 2025 12:05:24 PM)

Khi bạn tập trung vào những điều không bao giờ thay đổi, bạn sẽ ngừng cố gắng dự đoán những sự kiện không chắc chắn và dành nhiều thời gian hơn để hiểu hành vi bền vững. (Page: 398 Location: 5685-5687 Date Added: Sunday, 20 July 2025 12:08:24 PM)